Page 9 - On The Move - Volume 16, Issue 3

at any point since the Great Recession.
New tariffs on all goods from Mexico
poised to start June 10 could lead to
stronger than normal summer sales in Jonathan Smoke
the weeks ahead as consumers attempt Chief Economist
to head off higher prices. Stronger than Cox Automotive
normal retail sales could push wholesale Twitter - @smokeoncars
prices higher again in June, which is the
same trend that occurred last year.

Combined rental, commercial, and
government purchases of new vehicles
were up 11% year-over-year in May, and
up 29% month-over-month. Commercial
(+12%) and rental (+14%) fleet channels
were up year-over-year in May. New
vehicle retail sales were down 3% in
May, leading to a retail SAAR of 13.9
million, down from 14.2 million last May.
New vehicle inventories came in under
4 million units for the first time in four
months.

Rental risk pricing improves. The
average price for rental risk units sold
at auction in May was up 3% year-over-
year. Rental risk prices were down 0.1%
compared to April. Average mileage for
rental risk units in May (at 45,300 miles)
was up 5% compared to a year ago and
up 1% month-over-month.

Favorable consumer confidence among
mixed conditions. The first revision of
estimated first quarter real GDP growth
came in at 3.1%, which was lower than
the first estimate of 3.2%. Consumer
spending was estimated slightly higher
but still represented weaker growth by
increasing only 1.3%. Growth in business
investment was revised down to an even
weaker 2.3%. Consumer Confidence
as measured by The Conference Board
increased 3.8% in May. This was the
first time this year that confidence has
improved in back-to-back months. As a
result of the two-month trend improving,
the confidence index is at the highest
level since November and is now higher
than last year. Plans to purchase a vehicle
in the next six months also increased in
May to a level that is now higher than

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