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On a year-over-year basis, all major market segments year. Rental risk prices were up 3% compared to No-
saw seasonally adjusted price increases in December. vember. Average mileage for rental risk units in Decem-
Vans had the largest year-over-year performance, while ber (at 69,000 miles) was up 32% compared to a year
the pickup, luxury car, and SUV segments lagged the ago and down 9% month-over-month.
overall market. On a month-over-month basis, no seg-
ment saw declines, as compact and luxury vehicles out- December saw mixed trends
paced the market and remaining segments. with consumer sentiment.
Consumer Confidence according to the Conference
Vehicle sales continue downward trend. Board increased 3.5% in December, and the Novem-
According to Cox Automotive estimates, total used ve- ber reading was revised up. However, in the underlying
hicle sales were down 4% year-over-year in Decem- components, the view of the present situation declined
ber. We estimate the December used SAAR to be 39.1 slightly while the view of the future jumped 7.4%. Plans
million, down from 40.6 million last December and flat to purchase a vehicle in the next six months increased to
compared to November’s revised 39.1 million SAAR. their highest level since July. Plans to purchase a home
The December used retail SAAR estimate is 20.4 mil- also increased to their highest level since February. The
lion, down from 21.6 million last year and flat month- sentiment index from the University of Michigan report-
over-month. ed a 4.7% increase in December, with both underlying
measures of current conditions and expectations im-
Using a rolling seven-day estimate of used retail days’ proving. By contrast, the Morning Consult daily index
supply based on vAuto data, we see that used retail saw a decline of 2.3% in December, with all the decline
supply peaked at 114 days on April 8, 2020. Normal used coming after Christmas.
retail supply is about 44 days’ supply. It ended
December at 54 days, above normal levels. We
estimate that wholesale supply peaked at 149
days on April 9, 2020, when normal supply is 23.
It ended December at 33 days.

December total new vehicle sales were down
24% year-over-year, with one more selling day
compared to December 2020. Month-over-
month, December new vehicle sales were down
4%. The December SAAR came in at 12.4 mil-
lion, a decrease from last year’s 16.3 million and
December 2019’s 16.9 million rate.

Combined sales into large rental, commercial,
and government buyers were down 32% year-
over-year in December and down 4% full year
2021 versus 2020. Sales into rental decreased
59% year-over-year in December and finished
the year down 9% compared to full year 2020.
Commercial sales are down 6% year-over-year
versus 2020 in December and up 8% for full
year 2021. Including an estimate for fleet deliv-
eries into the dealer and manufacturer channel,
we estimate that the remaining retail sales were
down 23% year-over-year in December, leading
to an estimated retail SAAR of 11.0 million, which
was down from 13.9 million last December and
down from December 2019’s 13.6 million rate.
Rental risk mileage decreases.
The average price for rental risk units sold at
auction in December was up 38% year-over-

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